46. The following appeared in a memorandum1 from the directors of a security and safety consulting service.
Our research indicates that over the past six years no incidents of employee theft have been reported within ten of the companies that have been our clients. In analyzing2 the security practices of these ten companies, we have further learned that each of them requires its employees to wear photo identification badges while at work. In the future, therefore, we should recommend the use of such identification badges to all of our clients.
安全保险服务经理的备忘录：
大家的研究指出，过去的6年中作为大家顾客的10家公司没被报道出有任何事故或职员偷窃行为。剖析这10家企业的安全经验，大家获悉他们每家公司都需要职员工作时佩带有照片的身份证章。因此，将来大家将把这种身份证章推荐给大家所有些客户。
1. 没报道出来未必代表没，可能是为了公司声誉reputation fame prestige没说也会是由于没发现
2. 肯定是佩带了有照片的身份证起了用途吗？这个非常难说。两者只不过碰巧同时发生，没势必的因果联系。
3. 不是所有企业的职员偷盗问题都是非常紧急的。比如服务商品提供的公司。
1. 未必没reported就是没发生。可能是公司出于reputation的考虑，隐瞒conceal了盗窃。
2. 没因果关系，胸牌可能不是缘由。可能是管理的最好，职员愈加cautious等等。
3. 未必其他的公司也适用一样的政策。非常可能其他的公司不合适用胸牌譬如服务业company who provide service rather than product，客户比较多，并不好管理。
In this argument the directors of a security-and safety-consulting service conclude that the use of photo identification badges should be recommended to all of their clients as a means to prevent employee theft. Their conclusion is based on a study revealing that ten of their previous clients who use photo identification badges have had no incidents of employee theft over the past six-year period. The directors recommendation is problematic in several respects.
In the first place, the directors argument is based on the assumption that the reason for the lack of employee theft in the ten companies was the fact that their employees wear photo identification badges. However, the evidence revealed in their research establishes only a positive correlation3 between the lack of theft and the requirement to wear badges; it does not establish a causal connection between them. Other factors, such as the use of surveillance cameras or spot checks of employees briefcases4 and purses could be responsible for lack of employee theft within the ten companies analyzed5.
In the second place, the directors assume that employee theft is a problem that is common among their clients and about which their clients are equally concerned. However, for some of their clients this might not be a problem at all. For example, companies that sell services are much less likely to be concerned about employee theft than those who sell products. Moreover, those that sell small products would be more concerned about theft than those that sell large products. Consequently, even if wearing badges reduces employee theft, it might not be necessary for all of the firms clients to follow this practice.
In conclusion, the directors recommendation is not well supported. To strengthen the conclusion they must establish a causal relation between the wearing of identification badges and the absence of employee theft. They also must establish that the firms clients are sufficiently6 similar to all profit from this practice.
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